Why Bitcoin Is Falling Today: Liquidations, ETF Outflows and the Fed Rate

In brief: Bitcoin is falling not because of a single piece of news but because three factors have coincided. The first is macro: after the US inflation data, the market is pricing a high probability that the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) will raise rates at its 16 September meeting — about 70% per CME FedWatch — and a rate hike hits all risk assets. The second is institutional money: spot bitcoin ETFs posted four consecutive days of outflows totaling roughly $462.7 million from 8 to 11 September. The third is leverage mechanics: a failed test of the $80k zone set off a cascade of forced closures, with $451.09 million in positions liquidated in a single day. As of 13 September, BTC is trading around $77.2k.

Bitcoin's price: a failed test of $80k

The peak of the first half of September came on 4 September, at about $81.2k. From there the market drifted lower. On 12 September bitcoin made another move up, to an intraday high of $79,890, but could not hold above it and returned to $77.2k.

The estimate of the weekly decline depends on the starting point: CoinStats counts from the $80–81.7k levels at the start of the window and gives −4.55% as of 13 September; measured over exactly seven calendar days to 13 September, market reviews put it at about −3.4% in BTC price. Both figures describe the same move — a slide from the $80k zone to $76.8–77.2k.

As of 11 September the accompanying picture looked like this (data from the coinspot.io market review):

Asset	Price on 11 September 2026	24h change
Bitcoin (BTC)	$77,276	−1.19%
Ethereum (ETH)	$2,467	−0.26%
Litecoin (LTC)	$53.70	—
XRP	$1.403	—

The Fear and Greed Index meanwhile held at 56 points — so there is no panic in the market, just a cooling-off after a failed attempt to rally.

How much was liquidated: $451 million and 94,000 traders

The main reason for the sharpness of the move is not spot selling but the forced closure of margin positions. In the 24 hours to 11 September, liquidations totaled $451.09 million, hitting 94,216 traders. The breakdown is telling:

• long liquidations — $353.45 million;
• short liquidations — $97.63 million;
• the largest single liquidation — $22.63 million, the ETHUSDT pair on Bitget.

That is, for every dollar of liquidated shorts there were roughly 3.6 dollars of liquidated longs. This is the classic picture of a "leverage flush": the market is not reversing fundamentally; it is taking the froth out of those who were positioned for a rise with too much leverage.

A similar episode occurred at the start of the month: on 2 September, $367.73 million was liquidated in a day, including $300.42 million in longs, across 90,090 accounts. Two similar cascades in ten days is a sign that the market keeps rebuilding the same lopsided positioning.

Spot ETF outflows: $462.7 million in four days

The second layer of pressure is institutional flows. Spot bitcoin ETFs broke a three-week streak of inflows and recorded outflows for four consecutive trading days:

Date	Net flow into spot BTC ETFs
8 September	−$46.65 million
9 September	−$120.24 million
10 September	−$282.56 million
11 September	−$13.29 million
Total	≈ −$462.7 million

An important detail: over the same 8–11 September period, ether ETFs attracted about $197.1 million and Solana products about $10.3 million (SoSoValue data). This is not a wholesale "flight from crypto" but a rotation of capital within the asset class.

Within the period the flows were choppy: on 10 September ETH products lost $29.76 million and Solana funds $0.48 million, but on 11 September inflows into ETH ETFs reached $216.41 million and pulled the whole window into positive territory.

The main trigger: the Fed on 16 September and 3.4% inflation

The macro backdrop is currently driving the crypto market more than crypto-native news. August US inflation data came in above expectations: headline CPI +0.4% month-on-month and +3.4% year-on-year, core +0.3% month-on-month.

After the inflation data on 10–11 September, the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike on 16 September rose to roughly 70% per CME FedWatch. The current rate range is 3.50–3.75%; a hike would take it to 3.75–4.00%.

Estimates differ markedly between venues, and this is worth bearing in mind:

Source of estimate	Probability of a hike on 16 September
CME FedWatch (after the 10–11 September data)	≈ 70%
Individual analyst reviews	87–90%
Kalshi	57%
Polymarket	49%

The trajectory of CME expectations was: about 44.4% in early August, 60.6% by 8 September, and about 70% after the inflation release.

Additional backdrop: the two-year US Treasury yield stood at roughly 4.61% as of 13 September, Brent crude is trading above $106, US unemployment is holding at 4.1%, and the US economy added 162,000 jobs in August. A strong labor market plus expensive energy are arguments for tightening, and tightening is an argument against risk assets.

What derivatives show: open interest and positioning

The derivatives market shows how "loaded" the market is:

• total open interest in perpetual contracts fell by roughly $2.02 billion over three days — leverage really is being flushed out;
• at the same time, about 62.4% of accounts on Binance remained long, so the imbalance persists and sets the stage for a new cascade if support breaks;
• in options, the largest block of open interest sits in the quarterly expiration on 25 September — a separate source of volatility at the end of the month (more in our piece on the futures and options expiration).

Which levels analysts are citing

This is not a price forecast but the technical zones around which orders and stop orders cluster. Per reviews as of 13 September:

• nearest support — $76,900–77,300;
• next major support — around $75,000;
• nearest resistance — around $78,000; psychological — $80,000;
• the zone a break of which changes the medium-term picture — $80,000–82,000.

Analysts also flag a technical signal: on 11 September the 50-day EMA crossed above the 200-day EMA (a "golden cross"). The indicator is lagging and does not set direction on its own, especially against a hawkish macro agenda.

Calendar for the coming days

• 15 September — procedural vote in the US Senate on the CLARITY Act (crypto regulation); 60 votes are required.
• 16 September — FOMC rate decision. The key event of the week for all risk assets.
• 18 September — quadruple witching on the US market: simultaneous expiration of index futures and options.
• 25 September — quarterly bitcoin options expiration on Deribit.

Why this is especially dangerous for margin traders

A liquidation cascade is structured so that it hits the account before "common sense" has a chance to kick in. At 10x leverage, a move of about 10% against the position is enough to lose the entire posted margin; at 20x, about 5%. This week bitcoin covered the $79.9–76.8k range, almost 4% — already enough to wipe out positions with leverage of 25x or higher.

The second risk is slippage: during an avalanche of forced closures the order book is thin, and a stop-loss fills worse than the set price. The third is funding: holding a long in a perpetual contract with lopsided positioning costs money every few hours. How to calculate an acceptable position size and where to place a stop is covered in "Leverage and liquidation".

Sources

• Bitcoin Price Analysis September 13, 2026 — usethebitcoin.com
• Crypto market review for 11 September — coinspot.io
• Bitcoin News: Why BTC Is Down, 8–13 September 2026 — CoinStats
• The Odds of a Rate Hike Are Soaring Ahead of the Sept. 16 FOMC Meeting — The Motley Fool
• $368M Crypto Long Squeeze September 2, 2026 — buildix.trade
• Crypto Liquidations Dashboard — CoinGlass
• Spot ETF flows for BTC, ETH and SOL — SoSoValue