MOEX Russia Index After the Bank of Russia Pause: 14% Rate, 2,220–2,360 Range

In brief: The MOEX Russia Index closed the week of 7–11 September at 2,281.04 points (+1.23%), while the dollar-denominated RTS Index ended at 852.84 points (+4.02%). The main event was the decision by the Bank of Russia (the central bank) on 11 September to keep the key rate at 14% per annum: this is a pause in the easing cycle, and the market took it negatively — selling picked up on Friday. On Monday, 14 September, the index recovered the drop: by 9:15 MSK it was up 1.18% at 2,307.44 points. PSB analysts see a range of 2,220–2,360 points for the coming week.

What the Bank of Russia decided on 11 September and why it matters for stocks

The Bank of Russia's board of directors kept the key rate at 14% per annum — the level in place since 27 July 2026. Formally this is a neutral decision, but the market was disappointed by the rhetoric:

• the regulator raised its estimate of underlying inflation to "5–6% annualized";
• stated outright that pro-inflationary risks prevail;
• and thereby pushed back expectations of further rate cuts.

The next board of directors meeting on the key rate is on 23 October 2026. Until then, the cost of money in the economy will not change.

For the equity market, a high key rate works through two channels. The first is competition for money: at a 14% rate, deposits and bonds offer yields that the dividend yield of most stocks struggles to compete with. The second is the cost of debt: highly indebted companies (retail, developers, transport) pay more on their loans, which hits profits. Hence the nature of the 11 September sell-off — it was precisely the stocks of companies with heavy debt loads and growth stories that took the hit, not commodity exporters.

Week of 7–11 September: oil majors versus growth

The gap between the indices comes down to the exchange rate: the RTS is calculated in dollars, and the ruble's appreciation added more than three percentage points on top of the ruble benchmark's performance.

Top gainers of the week:

Laggards of the week:

The picture is unambiguous: money flowed into oil and gas on the back of expensive crude and out of growth stories and leveraged companies ahead of the central bank decision.

Why the previous week looked completely different

For context, it helps to look at the week of 31 August – 4 September: the MOEX Russia Index jumped 6.55% to 2,253.41 points, and the RTS gained 5.34% to 819.85 points. The rally ran on news of Vladimir Putin's talks with Witkoff and Kushner — that is, on a geopolitical driver.

The leaders that week were Ozon (+25.8%), MMK (+14.1%), PhosAgro (+14%), Alrosa (+12.5%) and NLMK (+12.4%). Note that Ozon and MMK, the top gainers of the first week of September, became the main laggards of the second. This is the typical mechanics after a sharp geopolitical rally — the most "overheated" stocks are the first to give back gains once the driver stops delivering fresh news.

11 September: who benefited from the hawkish signal

On Friday itself the breakdown was as follows:

• Gainers: Seligdar +4.72% (RUB 36.37), Polyus +1.96% (RUB 1,001.2).
• Losers: Ozon −4.36%, AFK Sistema −3.88%, Alrosa −3.64%, Yandex −2.51%, Tatneft −2.27%.

Gold miners rose against the backdrop of the central bank's hawkish stance — a classic defensive reaction. Tech stocks and companies with debt fell.

Monday morning, 14 September

By 9:15 MSK the MOEX Russia Index was up 1.18% at 2,307.44 points. Gazprom (+4%), Novatek (+4%) and Yandex (+2%) led the gains.

A reminder that from 14 September the main trading session on the Moscow Exchange's equity, derivatives, FX and precious metals markets starts at 9:00 MSK rather than 10:00 — so this morning's move already falls under the new schedule. More in our piece "Moscow Exchange opens trading at 9:00".

External backdrop: oil and gold

• Brent. Friday turned out to be a reversal day: after an intraday rise toward $110 a barrel, November futures on ICE Futures closed at $104.61 — down $3.02, or 2.81%. For comparison, on 10 September the contract closed at $107.63 (+6.34%). On Monday morning, 14 September, by 8:17 MSK Brent had recovered the drop and was trading at $107.17 (+2.45% versus Friday's close). WTI: the 11 September close was $100.05, the 14 September morning price $102.61. Over the past week both benchmarks gained more than 8%.
• What is driving oil. The trigger for the jump on the morning of 14 September was drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure: according to the country's energy ministry, the East–West pipeline, which carries about 7 million barrels a day to a port on the Red Sea, was shut down after a massive strike. For the MOEX Russia Index, with its heavy oil-and-gas weighting, this is the key external anchor — hence the gains in Gazprom and Novatek at the open.
• Gold. Fell almost 2% on expectations that the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) will raise rates on 16 September. Expensive dollar money is a negative for assets without a coupon.
• The Fed. The market is pricing a high probability of a 25-basis-point US rate hike on 16 September after strong inflation data. This affects the Russian market indirectly — through global risk appetite and through oil.

Analysts' forecast: the range and the arguments

PSB analysts expect the MOEX Russia Index to spend the coming week in a range of 2,220–2,360 points, noting the nearest support around 2,280 points. The arguments for the upper bound are a normalization of sentiment above 2,300 points and technical support; the arguments for the lower bound are geopolitical and sanctions risks as well as the dividend calendar.

This is an estimate, not a guarantee. The key risks to the range this week:

1. 16 September — the Fed meeting. A US rate hike strengthens the dollar and weighs on commodities.
2. 17 September — quarterly expiration of futures and options on the Moscow Exchange derivatives market; volumes and the amplitude of moves rise on such days (see our breakdown of September expirations).
3. Geopolitics. It delivered +6.55% in a week at the start of the month — and it is just as capable of taking that gain back.
4. Bank of Russia rhetoric. Comments from the regulator's officials between meetings directly shape rate expectations for 23 October.

What a trader should watch this week

• The 2,280 level as the nearest support and 2,360 as the upper bound of the expected range.
• Brent: after Friday's close at $104.61, oil was back above $107 on the morning of 14 September — as long as that level holds, the oil-and-gas block supports the index.
• The ruble exchange rate — it determines the divergence between IMOEX and the RTS.
• The calendar: the Fed on 16 September, expiration on 17 September, then expectations for the Bank of Russia meeting on 23 October.

Sources

• Moscow Exchange trading results, 7–11 September — Vedomosti
• Morning bell for the equity market, 14 September — Vedomosti
• Moscow Exchange trading results, 31 August – 4 September — Vedomosti
• Bank of Russia key rate — cbr.ru
• MOEX Russia Index may spend the week in the 2,220–2,360 range — PSB / Finmarket
• Brent falls to $106.52 a barrel — finance.mail.ru, 11 September 2026
• Brent falls to $104.61 a barrel — finance.mail.ru, 14 September 2026