Brent Crude Above $107: Why Oil Is Rising and What the Budget Gains

In brief: Brent crude is trading at $107.17 per barrel on the morning of 14 September 2026: as of 8:17 MSK, November futures on ICE Futures are up 2.45% from Friday's close ($104.61). US WTI is at $102.61 (October futures on NYMEX, +2.56% from the $100.05 close). Over the past week both benchmarks gained more than 8%, and since the start of September Brent has risen almost 13%, the strongest move since mid-July. The main reason is neither demand nor OPEC+ decisions but physical supply risk from the Middle East: attacks on Saudi Arabia's infrastructure, the shutdown of a trunk pipeline and a threat to shipping in two key straits.

How oil rose in September

Figures are for November Brent futures on ICE Futures. Morning quotes are a snapshot of the market at the time the daily summaries are published and do not match the session close: on 11 September, for example, trading opened at around $106.5 and finished at $104.61. Prices are up about 13% since the start of September and roughly 24% over the month.

Why oil is rising: three real reasons

1. Shutdown of the East-West pipeline. The Saudi trunk line, with a capacity of around 7 million barrels per day, connects the oil-producing regions in the east of the kingdom with the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. After the drone attack on 10 September, pumping has stopped. This is the very route that allowed Riyadh to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; losing it makes exports critically dependent on a single chokepoint.

2. Threat to shipping in the straits. Houthi forces have seized the port of Mocha in Yemen and gained control over a roughly 20 km stretch of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. At the same time, there was an incident involving a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, and a meeting of Persian Gulf states on the security of Hormuz was called off. Some analysts believe normal shipping through Hormuz will not resume before next year.

3. Shrinking global inventories. Since the start of 2026, global oil stocks have fallen by roughly 400 million barrels, and the International Energy Agency expects them to decline further through the end of the year. The market is entering a supply crisis with no safety margin.

Supply from the United States is responding slowly: the number of active oil rigs has risen to 450, the highest since May 2026, but the effect on output shows up with a lag of several months.

Forecasts: how high Brent could go

Analysts agree that if the blockade of the straits persists, a range of $110–130 is realistic, but they stress this is an escalation scenario rather than a baseline forecast:

• Ivan Efanov, Tsifra Broker: over the medium term, oil could exceed $120 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains partly or fully blocked.
• Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya, BCS World of Investments: "technically, Brent futures now have a clear path to $110–120" (translated from Russian), with significant resistance at the $110 mark.
• Igor Yushkov, National Energy Security Fund: if exports through Bab el-Mandeb are successfully restricted, prices could reach $120–130 per barrel.

The reverse scenario is just as real: any signs of de-escalation or a resumption of pumping through the pipeline could quickly push prices back down to the levels where the September rally began. The geopolitical premium in the oil price is its most unstable component, and it disappears faster than it appears.

What this means for Russia and the budget

For the Russian economy the effect is twofold.

The upside: higher global prices support the value of Russian crude even after sanctions discounts, which means higher oil and gas budget revenues and a larger inflow of foreign currency earnings. This is one reason the ruble strengthened in the first half of September: the dollar fell from 86.38 RUB to 84.26 RUB. For details, see Ruble Strengthens to 84 per Dollar.

The downside: expensive oil feeds through into domestic fuel prices. It was the fuel market that the Bank of Russia (the central bank) named as the main cause of the summer acceleration in inflation. Central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said: "We will do everything to ensure that today's rise in fuel prices does not turn into higher inflation tomorrow" (translated from Russian). In effect, this became one of the arguments for holding the key rate at 14%; see the Bank of Russia decision of 11 September.

The bottom line for readers: in the current configuration, rising oil is not unambiguously good news for households. It strengthens the budget and the ruble, but at the same time it pushes up domestic prices and delays the moment when loans become cheaper.

Sources

• Finance Mail: Brent crude rises to $107.17
• Finance Mail: oil prices test the $110 mark
• Finance Mail: Brent tops $99 for the first time since 24 July
• Lenta.ru: oil jumps after pipeline attack
• Neftegaz.RU: oil rises on Middle East escalation
• EADaily: prices rise after Gulf states' meeting on Hormuz is called off