Bitcoin Stuck Near $77,000 Ahead of Fed Meeting: Why the Market Isn't Rising

In brief: Bitcoin isn't rising because the market cut risk ahead of the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) meeting on 16 September: futures positions were being closed faster than the price was falling, and there is no sustained spot demand capable of pulling the price higher. On the morning of 14 September 2026, BTC is trading around $77,800 (+1.6% in 24 hours, CoinGecko data); over the 7 days to 13 September the asset lost 3.4% (ForkLog). Until the price closes above $81,700, CryptoQuant analysts do not consider bounces a change of trend.

Bitcoin price today: the numbers for 14 September 2026

The week followed a single script: an attempt to get back above $80,000, a failure, a drop to $76,000 on 11 September on US inflation data, and a quick buying of the dip. The week's low, according to 2bitcoins, was $76,748.

Why bitcoin isn't rising: three reasons

1. The market expects the Fed to raise rates, not cut them. The current Fed funds rate range is 3.50–3.75%; the last cut came in December 2025. After the August producer price report (PPI rose 5.4% year on year against a 5.3% forecast, and 0.4% month on month), the CME FedWatch tool began pricing the probability of a 25-basis-point hike on 16 September at roughly 70%, up from 64% before the release. That is specifically the CME FedWatch estimate. Higher figures — 87–90% versus 37% at the end of August — come from GBIG Holdings founder Rufat Abyasov (quoted by Finance Mail.ru, 13 September 2026); this is his own estimate, not futures market data. The spread in estimates is itself a source of volatility.

2. Treasury yields and expensive oil are pulling money out of risk. On 11–12 September 2026, the 10-year US Treasury yield held around 4.92%, the 2-year at 4.53% and the 30-year at 5.35% (the highest since 2007); oil was trading above $100 a barrel. Data: 2bitcoins. In this configuration, the nominally risk-free yield competes with any risk asset, and cryptocurrencies sit at the far end of the risk curve in that hierarchy.

3. Positioning has already played out. According to CryptoQuant, bitcoin open interest fell from 321,497 BTC (3 September) to 278,151 BTC (11 September), a 13.5% decline. The derivatives pressure index over the same period went from −25.36 to −60.8, while the price fell only 5%. In other words, positions were being cut faster than the market was falling, and positioning is now roughly 20% below the levels of the August rally.

"Rallies without spot demand look less convincing." — CryptoQuant, quoted by ForkLog, 14 September 2026 (translated from Russian).

"The data does not yet point to buyers dominating." — CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., quoted by ForkLog, 14 September 2026 (translated from Russian).

"Market positioning already made its move last week." — Santiment, quoted by ForkLog, 14 September 2026 (translated from Russian).

Which levels market participants consider key

These are not price forecasts but reference points the analysts themselves talk about.

• $81,700 — the level above which CryptoQuant is prepared to talk about confirmation of a bullish scenario.
• ~$80,300 — the nearest resistance according to Cifra Markets analyst Aleksandr Krayko; above it lies the $81,000–86,000 supply zone.
• $76,000–77,000 — the support zone, coinciding with the 50-day EMA (around $77,300).
• $73,000–74,000 — the level whose loss, in the same analyst's view, changes the market structure.
• $76,000–80,000 — the actual corridor the price has held in recent weeks. Rufat Abyasov (GBIG Holdings) cites a wider consolidation frame of $76,000–82,000: "The market is expecting a whipsaw, not a trend" (translated from Russian).

A separate detail of the week: ether is behaving more resiliently than bitcoin — holding around $2,500 while BTC declines. Capital flows confirm this: bitcoin ETFs lost $463 million over 8–11 September, while ether funds attracted $197 million. A detailed breakdown is in the article "Bitcoin ETFs lose $463 million".

The week's calendar: what can actually move the market

The week's backdrop also included the 6 September incident: around 4,000 BTC were drained from the Liquid Network sidechain — what happened and how it ended. It did not affect bitcoin's base layer, but it soured sentiment in the infrastructure segment.

What follows from this

The combination of "price flat — open interest falling — derivatives deflating" describes not a direction but a wait. Until either the Fed decision or sustained spot demand (ETF inflows, corporate treasury purchases) arrives, the range is likely to remain the defining factor. And in a thin market — especially on weekends, when order book depth is lower — breaks outside the $76,000–80,000 corridor often turn out to be false.

Sources

• ForkLog: "Bitcoin stalls at $77,000 awaiting the Fed meeting", 14 September 2026
• ForkLog: "Week in review: bitcoin around $77,000 and the theft of ~4,000 BTC from Liquid Network", 13 September 2026
• 2bitcoins: "Bitcoin falls below $77,000: market expects Fed rate hike on 16 September"
• Finance Mail.ru: "Wednesday is D-Day": what awaits bitcoin this week, 13 September 2026
• CoinGecko — prices and market cap as of 14 September 2026
• mempool.space — estimate of the upcoming bitcoin difficulty adjustment as of 14 September 2026