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Trading · Global markets

Why Is Gold Falling: Lowest Since 5 August and Uzbek Central Bank Bar Prices

On 28 September 2026 gold fell 3.3% to $4,146.51 an ounce, its lowest since 5 August (Al Jazeera, at the time of publication). Al Jazeera links the drop to oil, the dollar and Treasury yields; Yahoo Finance also points to expectations of another Fed rate hike. We look at the causes, the 29 September rebound and the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's gold bar prices for 30 September 2026, both selling and buyback.

· 6 min read · Sogdium Editorial
Frosted two-pan scales on a light table: one pan holds a small smooth unmarked bar, the other a thin stack of blank bond certificates with a teal bookmark, and it weighs more

In brief: why is gold falling? On 28 September 2026 the spot price fell 3.3% to $4,146.51 an ounce, its lowest since 5 August (figures at the time of publication by Al Jazeera). Al Jazeera links the drop to rising oil, a firmer dollar and US government bond yields. Yahoo Finance (Tim Manni, 28 September 2026) cites the dollar, bond yields and expectations of another Fed rate hike. The probability of an October hike on CME FedWatch rose to 70.3% on 28 September 2026 from 64.2% a day earlier (Stocktwits on Yahoo Finance). On 29 September 2026 gold recovered 1.39% to $4,184.97 (Rio Times). In Uzbekistan, as of 30 September 2026 the Central Bank's selling price for a 5 g bar is 8,977,000 soums, and the buyback price with intact packaging is 7,823,000 soums (cbu.uz, updated at 09:32).

Gold on 28–29 September 2026: the numbers

Sources quote different figures because they measure different things: spot, futures, intraday low or close. We bring them together with attribution.

IndicatorValueSource, date
Spot gold, 28 September (at the time of publication)−3.3%, $4,146.51 an ounce, lowest since 5 AugustAl Jazeera, 28 September 2026
Spot gold, 28 September (at the time of publication)−3%, around $4,156Stocktwits on Yahoo Finance, 28 September 2026
Spot gold, 28 September close−3.12%Rio Times, 30 September 2026
Intraday low, 28 September$4,110.55CNBC, 29 September 2026
December futures, settlement price, 28 September−$152.80 (−3.54%), $4,168.40Hammerstone Markets on investrade.com, 28 September 2026
Spot gold, 29 September+1.39%, $4,184.97; daily range $4,113.46–4,187.66Rio Times, 30 September 2026
Spot silver, 28 September (at the time of publication)−4.7%, $61.27Al Jazeera, 28 September 2026
10-year Treasuries, 28 Septemberbid yield up to 5.272% intraday, close around 5.24% — a 19-year high, according to the reviewHammerstone Markets on investrade.com, 28 September 2026
10-year Treasuries, par yield5.24% (28 September), 5.26% (29 September)US Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve

By 29 September 2026 gold had recovered less than half of its 28 September drop (Rio Times, 30 September 2026).

Why is gold falling: the causes cited by media and analysts

US bond yields. In a Hammerstone Markets review on 28 September 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.272% intraday and closed around 5.24%, a 19-year high according to the review. According to the US Treasury, the 10-year par yield was 5.24% on 28 September 2026 and 5.26% on 29 September 2026. Stocktwits on Yahoo Finance explained on 28 September 2026 that high yields usually weigh on gold: the metal pays no interest, so bonds become more attractive.

Oil and Iran. According to Al Jazeera (28 September 2026), oil rose about 3% after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal to settle the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz; in the outlet's view, this heightened inflation concerns. By the close the gain had narrowed: Hammerstone Markets writes that oil "pared gains", and Brent in the review's table for 28 September 2026 stood at $105.28 (+$0.96).

The Fed. According to Stocktwits on Yahoo Finance (28 September 2026), the Fed (the US Federal Reserve) raised rates by 25 bp earlier in September and signaled that more may be needed. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, according to Al Jazeera (28 September 2026), is among the officials warning of persistent inflation risks. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, according to Benzinga (28 September 2026), named expensive oil and rate hike expectations as the main drivers of gold's weakness.

The dollar. According to Al Jazeera (28 September 2026), the dollar held near a two-month high. The dollar index closed at 101.37 on 29 September 2026, its highest close in two months (Rio Times).

Profit-taking in Asia. Saxo Bank analysts, according to Benzinga (28 September 2026), believe most of the selling took place during the Asian session and may have reflected profit-taking by Chinese investors ahead of the Golden Week holidays.

There are other views as well. Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen, according to Stocktwits on Yahoo Finance (28 September 2026), wrote that gold's resilience faces its "toughest test yet". L1 Gold Fund founder Raphael Lamm, according to Benzinga (28 September 2026), called the decline "very temporary" and pointed to US government debt above $40 trillion and growing central bank allocations.

The 29 September rebound and US data this week

On 29 September 2026 gold rose 1.39% after weak US data, Rio Times wrote on 30 September 2026: JOLTS job openings for August came in at 7.079 million against a forecast of 7.23 million, and the Conference Board consumer confidence index for September was 81.9, the lowest since 2014. The probability of an October Fed hike on CME FedWatch fell to around 51.5% from 70.9% on Monday, 28 September (Kitco, 29 September 2026; Rio Times has the same figures). The 70.9% and Stocktwits' 70.3% are different snapshots of Monday. New York Fed President John Williams, according to Kitco, said there was "no need for urgency".

US data calendar (Tashkent time, UTC+5). This text was prepared on 30 September 2026 before these releases, and their results are not included:

  • 30 September 2026, 17:15 — ADP employment for September, forecast 70,000 after 38,000 in August (Rio Times).
  • 30 September 2026, 17:30 — personal income and PCE inflation for August (Kitco: "Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET"), PCE forecast 3.7% y/y (Rio Times). In Rio Times' assessment, a hot PCE reading would most likely reverse the 29 September rebound. Kitco wrote that softer inflation and employment data would support the rebound, while stronger data would bring back pressure through yields.
  • 2 October 2026, 17:30 — the September employment report (Kitco: "Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET"; CNBC, 29 September 2026: "nonfarm payrolls on Friday").

We do not give numerical gold price forecasts. For how Fed decisions affect markets, see our analysis "Fed vs Bank of Russia: How September Rate Decisions Affect Bitcoin and the Ruble".

Central Bank of Uzbekistan gold bar prices on 30 September 2026

The Central Bank sells 999.9 fine bars weighing 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 g through commercial banks, and whole bars are also bought back at banks with immediate payment; selling and buyback prices are set from the global gold price plus the Central Bank's margin or discount and are published daily in soums (cbu.uz, page updated 17 October 2025). The Central Bank may revise prices during the day.

WeightSellingBuyback, intact packagingBuyback, packaging damaged or not meeting technical requirements (after examination)
5 g8,977,000 soums7,823,000 soums7,744,000 soums
10 g17,954,000 soums15,646,000 soums15,488,000 soums
20 g35,908,000 soums31,293,000 soums30,977,000 soums
50 g89,769,000 soums78,232,000 soums77,441,000 soums
100 g179,538,000 soums156,463,000 soums154,883,000 soums

Source: cbu.uz, "Gold Bar Selling and Buyback Prices", updated 30 September 2026 at 09:32.

  • pultop.uz shows a change of +35,000 soums for the 5 g bar as of 30 September 2026 (the comparison period is not stated on the page).
  • On 29 January 2026 the same bar, according to Spot citing the Central Bank, sold for 10.864 million soums; Spot wrote that the price had set a new high for the seventh trading day in a row. The price on 30 September 2026 (8,977,000 soums) is 17.4% below that January record (our calculation).

The gap between buying and buyback: 12.9% on 30 September

Our calculation based on Central Bank prices for 30 September 2026: a 5 g bar sells for 8,977,000 soums and is bought back with intact packaging for 7,823,000 soums, a difference of 1,154,000 soums, or 12.9% of the selling price. To sell the bar back without a loss, the buyback price would have to rise 14.75%, from 7,823,000 soums (30 September 2026) to 8,977,000 soums; for comparison, spot gold's rebound on 29 September 2026 was +1.39% (Rio Times). With damaged packaging, the buyback price on 30 September 2026 is 7,744,000 soums, 13.7% below the selling price of 8,977,000 soums.

For comparison: on 29 January 2026 Spot wrote that the gap between the selling and buying price was 3.88% with intact packaging. When and why it changed, the Central Bank does not explain on its prices page (30 September 2026) or its gold bar information page (version of 17 October 2025); the size of the margin and discount is not given on either page as of 30 September 2026 — they state only that these are set with regard to the operational costs of issuing the bars.

Converted per ounce at the Central Bank rate of 11,821.18 soums per dollar on 30 September 2026 (our calculation, 1 troy ounce = 31.1035 g):

  • selling price of 1,795,400 soums per gram ≈ $4,724 an ounce — 12.9% above the 29 September 2026 spot gold close ($4,184.97, Rio Times);
  • buyback price of 1,564,600 soums per gram ≈ $4,117 an ounce — 1.6% below the same $4,184.97 close.

The Central Bank allows bars with undamaged packaging to be taken out of Uzbekistan (cbu.uz, gold bar information, version of 17 October 2025); Spot wrote on 29 January 2026 that export is permitted "subject to certain conditions" (translated from Russian). Customs rules for taking bars out of the country are not covered in this article.

Gold and Uzbekistan's reserves

As of 1 September 2026, gold made up 90% of Uzbekistan's international reserves: 14.11 million troy ounces worth $64.93 billion out of total reserves of $72.13 billion (Gazeta.uz, 9 September 2026, citing Central Bank data). Based on Central Bank data, the gold price rose in August from $4,052.2 to $4,602 an ounce, by Gazeta.uz's calculation.

Our calculation, not a forecast: with a physical volume of 14.11 million ounces, every $100 change in the price per ounce changes the value of the gold part of the reserves by about $1.41 billion. For how the Central Bank links gold purchases to operations on the currency market, see "Dollar Rate in Uzbekistan: Why It Is Holding Near 11,800 Soums".

Risks

  • Gold is volatile: on 28 September 2026 the spot price fell 3.3% and silver 4.7% (Al Jazeera, at the time of publication).
  • Central Bank prices may be revised during the day (cbu.uz); check them on the day of the transaction.
  • Leveraged gold futures and CFDs are a separate risk class; we explained how liquidation is calculated in our article on leverage.

FAQ

Why is gold falling in September 2026? On 28 September 2026 gold fell to its lowest since 5 August: Al Jazeera links this to rising oil, a firm dollar and Treasury yields, while Yahoo Finance points to the dollar, yields and expectations of another Fed rate hike.

How much does a 5 gram gold bar cost in Uzbekistan today? As of 30 September 2026, the Central Bank's selling price for a 5 g bar is 8,977,000 soums (cbu.uz, updated at 09:32). The buyback price with intact packaging is 7,823,000 soums; if the packaging is damaged or does not meet technical requirements, it is 7,744,000 soums after examination. The Central Bank may revise prices during the day.

How much does a buyer lose when selling a bar back? When selling back at the Central Bank's prices on the same day, 30 September 2026, 12.9% of the selling price: 1,154,000 soums on a 5 g bar with intact packaging (our calculation). To break even, the buyback price would have to rise 14.75%, from 7,823,000 to 8,977,000 soums.

Can you take a gold bar out of Uzbekistan? Yes, if the packaging is intact, according to the cbu.uz page "Gold bars" (version of 17 October 2025); customs rules for export are not covered in this article. The packaging serves as a certificate and carries a serial number.

What will happen to the gold price next? We do not forecast the price. Kitco on 29 September 2026 and Rio Times on 30 September 2026 linked further moves to Treasury yields and US data — PCE (30 September) and the employment report (2 October); the results of those releases are not included in this article, prepared on 30 September 2026.

Sources

All retrieved on 30 September 2026 unless a publication date is given.

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